UNESCO sponsored conference
5th DUBROVNIK CONFERENCE ON SUSTAINABLE DEVELOPMENT
OF ENERGY WATER AND ENVIRONMENT SYSTEMS
September 29 - October 3 2009, Dubrovnik, Croatia
>> INVITED LECTURES
How to implement Renewable Energy Systems? Lessons learned from the Danish case.
ABSTRACT: With regard to the implementation of renewable energy systems, Denmark has become an interesting case. As many other western countries, Denmark was totally dependent on the import of oil at the time of the first oil crisis in 1973. Almost all transport and all residential heating were based on oil. And even 85 per cent of the Danish electricity supply was produced from oil. Altogether, prior to the oil crisis, more than 90 per cent of the primary energy supply was oil. Looking back more than 30 years later, Danish society has proven able to implement rather remarkable changes. First, half the oil consumption has been replaced by other fuels, i.e. coal, natural gas and, to some extent, renewable energy. Secondly, Denmark has managed to stabilise the primary energy supply at the same level as in 1972. This stabilisation is unique compared to other countries as it has been achieved simultaneously with a "normal western European" economic growth.
The primary means have been energy conservation and efficiency improvements in supply. Buildings have been insulated and CHP (Combined Heat and Power) production has been expanded. Thus, today, the primary energy supply for heating is reduced to two thirds of what was used prior to 1973, even though the heated space area has increased by more than 50 per cent in the same period. The renewable energy share of primary energy supply has increased from around zero in 1972 to 16 per cent in 2007 and wind power has become equal to a 20 per cent share of the electricity demand. Moreover, Denmark has started to produce oil and natural gas from the North Sea and is today more than self-supplied with energy. However, the Danish oil and gas resources are scarce and are likely to last for only a few decades. An interesting question is therefore, can Denmark convert to 100 per cent renewable energy within a matter of decades or will we have to return once again to former days of dependency on import of fossil fuels? Such question is indeed relevant not only to Denmark, but to Europe in general as well as the US, China and many other nations around the world.
The idea of the lecture is to unify and deduce the learning and results of a number of separate studies and thereby contribute to a coherent understanding of how society can implement Renewable Energy Systems. The presentation is based on 25 years of involvement in a number of important and representative political decision-making processes.
The primary means have been energy conservation and efficiency improvements in supply. Buildings have been insulated and CHP (Combined Heat and Power) production has been expanded. Thus, today, the primary energy supply for heating is reduced to two thirds of what was used prior to 1973, even though the heated space area has increased by more than 50 per cent in the same period. The renewable energy share of primary energy supply has increased from around zero in 1972 to 16 per cent in 2007 and wind power has become equal to a 20 per cent share of the electricity demand. Moreover, Denmark has started to produce oil and natural gas from the North Sea and is today more than self-supplied with energy. However, the Danish oil and gas resources are scarce and are likely to last for only a few decades. An interesting question is therefore, can Denmark convert to 100 per cent renewable energy within a matter of decades or will we have to return once again to former days of dependency on import of fossil fuels? Such question is indeed relevant not only to Denmark, but to Europe in general as well as the US, China and many other nations around the world.
The idea of the lecture is to unify and deduce the learning and results of a number of separate studies and thereby contribute to a coherent understanding of how society can implement Renewable Energy Systems. The presentation is based on 25 years of involvement in a number of important and representative political decision-making processes.
Aalborg University
Aalborg, Denmark
Henrik Lund is professor in Energy Planning at Aalborg University and Editor-in-Chief of Elsevier International journal Energy. He was head of department from 1996 to 2002 and holds a PhD in "implementation of sustainable energy systems" (1990). His area of expertise has for more than 20 years been energy system analysis, energy planning and energy economics. The International Energy Foundation (IEF) gave him a gold medal for "Best Research Paper Award" within the area "Energy Policies & Economics" in 1998. He has been involved in a number of research projects and committee works in Danish energy planning, and in the implementation of various local energy projects in Denmark as well as in many other countries. In 2005-2007 he headed an international research project (www.project-desire.org) on the integration of wind and CHP and he is now the coordinator a research project on 100% Renewable Energy Systems involving most Danish universities (www.CEESA.dk). Moreover HL is the architect behind the energy system analysis model EnergyPLAN (www.EnergyPLAN.eu).
Sustainable Energy Development:
the Present (2009) Situation and Possible Paths to the Future
ABSTRACT: Recent estimates and forecasts of the oil, gas, coal resources and their reserve/production ratio, nuclear and renewable energy potential, and energy uses are surveyed. A brief discussion of the status, sustainability (economic, environmental and social impact), and prospects of fossil, nuclear and renewable energy use, and of power generation (including hydrogen, fuel cells, micro power systems, and the futuristic concept of generating power in space for terrestrial use), is presented. Comments about energy use in general, with more detailed focus on insufficiently considered areas of transportation and buildings are brought up. Ways to resolve the problem of the availability, cost, and sustainability of energy resources alongside the rapidly rising demand are discussed. The author's view of the promising energy R&D areas, their potential, foreseen improvements and their time scale, and last year's trends in government funding are presented.
Univ. of Pennsylvania
Philadelphia, USA
Professor, Department of Mechanical Engineering and Applied Mechanics, University of Pennsylvania, Philadelphia, USA, 1973-. Since his Ph.D. from the University of California, Berkeley, he is intensively and internationally involved in energy, water desalination, heat transfer and thermodynamics education, research and consulting for about 35 years. His research, partially in collaboration with scholars from Asia, Europe, and the Middle East includes solar, fossil fuel and nuclear energy, water desalination distillation processes, as well as environmental impacts and sustainability. He has more than 200 publications in the fields of energy, water desalination, heat and mass transfer, fluid mechanics, and thermodynamics, is a frequent invited keynote speaker about the world energy technology and situation at international energy conferences. Fellow ASME and AIAA. Past and current Editorships: Editor-in-Chief, Advances in Water Desalination book series, John Wiley, Editor-in-Chief of ENERGY - The International Journal, Regional Editor for North America and Europe of the Energy Conversion and Management Journal; Member of the board of editors of: ASME Journal of Solar Energy Engineering, Desalination, The International Journal of Desalting and Water Purification, Russian Journal of Engineering Thermophysics, Encyclopedia of Life Support Systems, The International Desalination & Water Reuse Quarterly , 1997-2002, Thermal Science and Engineering journal (Japan), Desalination and Water Treatment Science and Engineering journal.
Building a Low Carbon Society
ABSTRACT: There is a wide consensus that we are approaching the sunset of the oil era in the first half of the 21st century. The price of oil on global markets continues to remain high and peak global oil is within sight in the coming decades. At the same time, the dramatic rise in carbon dioxide emissions from the burning of fossil fuels is raising the earth's temperature and threatening an unprecedented change in the chemistry of the planet, with ominous consequences for the future of human civilization and the ecosystems of the earth.
The triple threat of the global credit crisis, the global energy crisis, and the global climate change crisis are interwoven and feed off of each other. Addressing the triple threat to our way of life will require a new economic story that can remake civilization along sustainable lines. The European Union needs a powerful new economic narrative that will push the discussion and the agenda around climate change and peak oil from fear to hope and from economic constraints to economic possibilities. That narrative is just now emerging as industries across Europe begin to lay the groundwork for a Low Carbon Society.
As the European Union prepares for the 15th Climate Change Conference in Copenhagen, Denmark in 2009, it is critical that we reframe the discussion on climate change and energy security to the mission of making the transition to a Low Carbon Society. If we do not succeed in reorienting the climate change and energy agenda from burden sharing to commercial opportunities, it is likely that the Copenhagen Climate Conference will not achieve its full potential.
The key is to lay out a compelling "social vision" to accompany the new economic vision. The Low Carbon Society provides the framework for the birth of a "New Social Europe" in the first half of the 21st Century. Just as the distributed Information Technology and internet communication revolutions dramatically changed the social context, as well as the economic parameters of doing business, a distributed renewable energy revolution will have a similar impact on Europe and the world.
The triple threat of the global credit crisis, the global energy crisis, and the global climate change crisis are interwoven and feed off of each other. Addressing the triple threat to our way of life will require a new economic story that can remake civilization along sustainable lines. The European Union needs a powerful new economic narrative that will push the discussion and the agenda around climate change and peak oil from fear to hope and from economic constraints to economic possibilities. That narrative is just now emerging as industries across Europe begin to lay the groundwork for a Low Carbon Society.
As the European Union prepares for the 15th Climate Change Conference in Copenhagen, Denmark in 2009, it is critical that we reframe the discussion on climate change and energy security to the mission of making the transition to a Low Carbon Society. If we do not succeed in reorienting the climate change and energy agenda from burden sharing to commercial opportunities, it is likely that the Copenhagen Climate Conference will not achieve its full potential.
The key is to lay out a compelling "social vision" to accompany the new economic vision. The Low Carbon Society provides the framework for the birth of a "New Social Europe" in the first half of the 21st Century. Just as the distributed Information Technology and internet communication revolutions dramatically changed the social context, as well as the economic parameters of doing business, a distributed renewable energy revolution will have a similar impact on Europe and the world.
Instituto Superior Técnico
Lisbon, Portugal
Prof. Maria G. Carvalho is Principal Adviser in the areas of Science, Higher Education, Innovation, Research Policy, Energy, Environment and Sustainable Development in the Bureau of European Policy Advisers, a Department of the European Commission reporting directly to the President of the Commission. She is a Full Professor at the Mechanical Engineering Department of IST-Instituto Superior Técnico (Technical University of Lisbon) since June 1992. In 1983 she obtained her Ph.D. at the Imperial College in London. She has participated in and coordinated a large number of international R & D Projects. She has over 500 publications in Scientific Journals, Books and International Conferences Proceedings to her credit. Her main research field is Energy, Environment and Sustainable Development. She was Minister of Science and Higher Education of the XV and XVI Constitutional Government of Portugal, a Director-General of GRICES-Office and Deputy President of the Portuguese Association of Engineers. She is a fellow of the World Academy of Art and Science She is a member of 22 national and international scientific associations and fellow of American Institute of Aeronautics and Astronautics and of American Association for the Advancement of Science.
Technologies and Policies for the Transition to a Sustainable Energy System in China
ABSTRACT: China's rapid economic growth over the past few decades, and in particular over the past few years, has resulted in rapid expansion of its energy consumption. Coal currently accounts for approximately 70% of China's primary supply, and will continue to play a crucial role in powering China's economic development. The consumption of coal has been a major threat to China's environmental sustainability. The consumption of fossil fuels contributed to 87-89% of the total SO2 emission in China during the 10th Five-Year-Plan (2000-2005), now makes China be largest CO2 emitter in the world as well. At the same time, over 50% of China's oil consumption comes from the overseas market, causing a significant energy supply security concerns. China is facing an energy dilemma in the process of industrialization, urbanization, and motorization: Based on current scientific and technology knowledge, it is really hard for China to achieve cost-effective transformation to a sustainable energy system. . This paper explores the current state of China's energy consumption, and options for the transition to a sustainable energy system. The paper begins with an overview of the energy supply in China including the current fuel mix, the structure of the industry, and projected investment and emissions trends. Section 2 examines, based on modeling analysis, the technological options that China would need to take for achieving transformation to a sustainable energy system, and Section 3 reviews the policy measures that have been implemented to promote the development and deployment of sustainable energy technologies since 2005. In the final section, further domestic and international cooperation initiatives that could shape the structure of China's future energy system are discussed.
Tsinghua University
Beijing, China
Dr. Zhang Xiliang received his Ph.D. of Management Science and Engineering at Tsinghua University in 1997. Dr. Zhang is currently a full professor of energy economics and policy and the executive director of Institute of Energy, Environment and Economy, Tsinghua University. Since April 2008 Prof. Zhang has also served as the chief scientist and executive director of China Automotive Energy Research Center, Tsinghua University. Prof. Zhang has conducted research on sustainable energy technology innovation and diffusion, markets, policies, and futures for China. Prof. Zhang served as the chief scientist of the expert group for drafting the experts' version of China Renewable Energy Law during 2004 -2005, and the energy expert of the expert group for drafting China Circular Economy Law in 2007, both work were organized by Environmental Protection and Resource Conservation Committee of National People's Congress. Prof. Zhang is currently the coordinator of three key climate change mitigation related projects of the National Global Environment Research Programme during the 11th Five-Year-Plan period (2006-2010). As co-principle investigators Prof. Zhang is also leading two key research grants from National Natural Sciences Foundation of China: China's Energy-related CO2 Control Technology and Policy and Modelling Energy Development and Utilization Strategy in Western China. Prof. Zhang has been a lead author for Energy Supply of the 4th IPCC Assessment Report, and shares Nobel Prize for the work on IPCC. He is an associate editor of journal Energy for Sustainable Development, and a member of editorial board of Climate Policy, International Journal of Sustainable Engineering, and Frontiers of Chinese Power Systems Technologies. He is currently a co-guest editor of the Special Issue on China Renewable Energy of Energy Policy. Dr. Zhang has been the secretary general of the New Energy Committee of China Energy Research Society since January 2006.
