Abstract

This study examines the energy demand of the building stock in Kanta-Häme, Finland, through simulations with the dynamic, multi-zone simulation software IDA ICE.  Four buildings with varying materials, construction years, and purposes were examined. Heating and cooling energy requirements were evaluated using the current climate test reference year (TRY2020), with future projections based on Representative Concentration Pathways RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 for TRY2030 and TRY2050. The findings suggest that, compared to the TRY2020 baseline, cooling demand increases while heating demand decreases under both scenarios. For all the buildings the heating energy demand change was found to decrease by 2050 from -9.9% to -24% depending on building type and climate scenario. For the two buildings with installed cooling systems the cooling energy demand increased from 8.4% to 44.3% while the total energy demand decreased from -9.4% to -18.1% depending on climate scenario and cooling technique. This indicates overall decline in future total energy demand. The other two buildings without installed cooling systems showed signs of severe overheating, one of them even in the TRY2020, and up to 97% in RCP8.5 TRY2050.  Hotter summers will elevate the need for cooling to prevent overheating, mitigate discomfort and associated health risks, particularly among vulnerable populations. The main challenge, concern existing buildings, particularly the ones without cooling systems.