Abstract

This study examines the energy demand of the building stock in Kanta-Häme, Finland, through simulations with the dynamic, multi-zone simulation software IDA Indoor Climate and Energy. Four buildings with varying materials, construction years, and purposes were examined. Heating and cooling energy requirements were evaluated using the current climate Test Reference Year 2020, with future projections based on Representative Concentration Pathways 4.5 and 8.5 for Test Reference Years 2030 and 2050. The findings suggest that, compared to the 2020 baseline, cooling demand increases while heating demand decreases under both scenarios. For all buildings, the heating energy demand was found to decrease by 2050, from 9.9% to 24%, depending on building type and climate scenario. For the two buildings with installed cooling systems, the cooling energy demand increased from 8.4% to 44.3%, while the total energy demand decreased from 9.4% to 18.1% across climate scenarios and cooling techniques. This result indicates an overall decline in future total energy demand. The other two buildings without installed cooling systems showed signs of severe overheating, one of them even in the Test Reference Year 2020, and up to 97% in Representative Concentration Pathway 8.5 Test Reference Year 2050. Hotter summers will increase the need for cooling to prevent overheating, mitigate discomfort and associated health risks, particularly among vulnerable populations. The main challenge concerns existing buildings, particularly those without cooling systems.